Australia will see an increase in the number of student overseas migration arrivals while overseas student departures will likely fall, according to the Net Overseas Migration Forecasts by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection.
The Net Overseas Migration (NOM) forecasting framework compiles the latest data on permanent and long term overseas arrivals and departures with intelligence regarding the propensity of migrants across different Australian visa categories to enter and leave Australia’s population. Data on the number of visa grants as well as the expected effects of announced policy decisions are also taken into account in the forecasts.
According to the recent NOM forecasts, from December 2014 to the year ending June 30, 2018, total NOM arrivals are forecast to increase over the forward estimates period, reaching 536,400. This increase is driven majorly by a rapid increase in the number of overseas student arrivals. Giving more details, the forecast states that Australia is expected to welcome 123,100 overseas students coming to study in the country.
The rapid growth in student NOM arrivals, according to the forecast, is lead by a package of measures following the Strategic Review of the Student Visa Program 2011 (the Knight Review) that would allow overseas students coming to Australia for higher education to enjoy streamlined visa processes and the incentive of two to four years’ work permit after graduation.
In contrast to the student arrivals, as stated in the forecast, the Department expects a decrease in the number of student NOM departures because of the introduction of new post-study work arrangements on March 23, 2013 in response to recommendations of the Knight Review. Accordingly, higher education students who were granted their first Australian student visa on or after November 5, 2011 are eligible for a Temporary Graduate visa (subclass 485) (Post-Study Work Stream) upon graduation.
“Take-up of this visa is expected to be high from March 2015, as a result Student departures are expected to decrease markedly over the next year. Student departures are then expected to increase, as student arrivals increase, reaching 35 100,” stated the Department in the forecast.
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Ameeta Parsuram ‘Meeta’ Psychologist, Poet & Lyricist